For Mike and Nick · Tuesday 20 October 2026

Our bank balance, day by day, and what keeps it above $30,000

Results

Bank balance at these settings$30,000: the least we want in the bank

What the opening settings assume

Ads, subscriptions and email offers: our 7 AI advisers' picks of what's very possible (3 TikTok, 2 Meta and 2 email advisers, each modelled on a top expert and working from our own sales records), or Mike's where it says so
TikTok's budget: rises evenly from $340 to $1,500 a day by Mon 14 Dec, then holds (our 3 AI TikTok advisers' realistic top with new videos every day). Mike's plan has no ceiling: the slider goes to $5,000.
Meta's budget: our scaling rule sets it every 48 hours from tonight
Extra Amazon and website sales our ads bring on top: half of what we've measured for TikTok, to be safe until it's next measured on Thu 29 Oct; all of what we've measured for Meta
Emails with offers to customers we already have (15 offers, drafted by Claude): likely about $12,700 by Tue 3 Nov and $15,200 through Thu 31 Dec, after card fees
Not counted in those totals: about $700 of later orders paid for with the $250 Opus gift card these emails sell, which brings in no new cash
The email money is expected once Mike and Nick OK each email before it sends; not money in hand
The email money replaces the forecast's own guess for annual plan renewals and restarts, so nothing is counted twice
The holidays (Black Friday to Green Monday): about $4,400 of extra cash between Wed 11 Nov and Mon 28 Dec. That's the middle of a low and a high guess made by the Claude session that built this forecast. Coming in: the Black Friday bundle sale emails ($5,940), extra Amazon sales in the holiday weeks ($2,060) and a Green Monday sale in mid December ($700). Going out: the free next box we give Black Friday buyers ($2,950), our Amazon Black Friday deal ($650) and our TikTok Black Friday sale ($700). A prepaid year of BROQ for our monthly BROQ subscribers (the slider below, not planned) would add to this.
Stan keeps financing our stock: 6 months (Stan says yes, as Mike expects)
Loans, Shopify and rent: as scheduled today

Big payments in and out

Every day and every week

TikTok ads

Spend a day Reach it by

What each $1 of TikTok ads brings back on first orders, at up to $700 a day

Reach it by

Return lost each time spend doubles %

Count the extra Amazon and website sales TikTok ads bring Share of the measured extra sales to count %

TikTok pays us about 14 days after each sale. We pay for the product and shipping about 5 days after.

Meta ads (Facebook and Instagram)

Daily budget Our scaling rule sets it, every 48 hours from tonight (decided Sun 18 Oct, 2:50pm Pacific) A target I set

Spend a day by the last day shown

Spend a day Reach it by

What each $1 of Meta ads brings back on first orders

Reach it by

Count the extra Amazon sales Meta ads bring Share of the measured extra sales to count %

Amazon ads

Branded ads (shoppers who search for BROQ, NMN-99 or SPMD-99): spend a day

Amazon's report, Sep 18 to Oct 17: $48 on branded ads, about $1.60 a day. The page counts what these ads cost, not their sales: most of these shoppers were already looking for us.

Unbranded ads (shoppers who search for sulforaphane and the like): spend a day Reach it by

What each $1 of unbranded ads brings back

Reach it by

Amazon pays us about 14 days after each sale.

YouTube ads

Try YouTube ads

Start on

Spend a day Reach it by

What each $1 of YouTube ads brings back on first orders

Reach it by

Count the extra Amazon sales YouTube ads bring Share of Meta's measured extra sales to count %

Never measured for YouTube, so the page uses Meta's: about 30 cents more on Amazon for each $1 of website sales.

Subscriptions from new buyers

Count the monthly payments from new buyers who subscribe

Every new buyer the ads above bring from Sat 17 Oct. Payments from people already subscribed are in the $3,245 a day above.

Our website

New buyers who subscribe

Months they stay, on average

Starts at: 45% for 5 months, our 2 AI email advisers' pickWhy: 13 of Meta's first 24 website buyers took a plan, and plans pay about 5 boxes on averageClaude's cash forecast (from our bank records, Fri 16 Oct): 30%Each pays us: about $35 a month after product and shipping

TikTok Shop

New buyers who subscribe

Months they stay, on average

Starts at: 7% for 5 months: 5 of our 7 AI advisers answered, and all said thisClaude's cash forecast: 7% tooEach pays us: about $17 to $19 a month after TikTok's fee, product and shipping

Amazon (Subscribe & Save)

New buyers who subscribe

Months they stay, on average

Starts at: 15% for 6 months, halfway between our 2 AI email advisers (one said 10% staying 5 months, the other 20% staying 8)Why a guess: Amazon gives no sign-up figuresEach pays us: about $32 a month after Amazon's fees, product and shipping

Email offers to customers we already have

Emails with offers to customers we already have (15 offers, drafted by Claude Tue 20 Oct): how much they bring in

Black Friday: a prepaid year of BROQ for about $470, if we offered it to our 466 monthly BROQ subscribers (not planned). How many buy:

Pause or skip offer, from Sun 1 Nov: about 120 subscribers cancel each month. How many it keeps:

Shopify loan: $1,385 every Monday

Payments start again on or this many weeks from Mon 19 Oct

Huntington bank loan: three payments

Untick one to see the balance if that payment moves past Sat 9 Jan.

Pay $5,600 on Tue 1 Dec Pay $12,920 on Tue 15 Dec Pay $5,600 on Mon 4 Jan

Stan and January's rent

Stan, who finances our stock: we pay half each Monday and repay the other half, plus 10%, 6 weeks later. For how long: Six months of Mondays: Stan says yes, as Mike expects Three Mondays (agreed in Stan's letter of Sat 17 Oct)

January's rent, $15,875 Pay it Thu 31 Dec Pay it Tue 5 Jan