Yes, change where the effort goes, but keep Meta, TikTok and your founder videos: they took Meta from 0.15 of break-even to 0.96 within a week (0.71 in the latest window, 13 to 15 October, with Thursday's full day).
What most raises our chances is more winning videos on Meta, where one video, "Holy Grail", carries the account right now, and on TikTok, creators selling BROQ for a commission plus many more BROQ posts.
All 13 members agree on that, and the budget rule changes some of them want are your and Nick's call, in the questions at the end.
Could the declined charge explain Thursday's bad results? Only a small part. After the 11:42am payment went through, Meta spent far less than usual for a few hours ($3.18 at 11am, $4.60 at noon and $11.23 at 1pm, against $37.16, $19.78 and $26.89 the day before), but it caught up by night: $410.08 for the whole day against $506.88 on Wednesday. Sales fell much further than spend: Thursday brought 3 new customers ($158.75), $0.39 in sales per $1 against $3.28 on Wednesday. Nothing else was wrong in the account, and four members say not to judge anything on one day. Thursday does count toward Saturday's budget move (13 to 15 October now reads 0.71 of break-even), so Nick checks the tracking first (item 4).
Does TikTok really go good day, bad day? Not as a steady rhythm, but the dips are real: they're the days TikTok spends least. TikTok's report by day (20 to 26 September, then 9 to 15 October; the campaign was off in between) shows the three days with the least spent were also the three with the fewest orders: 22 September ($89.34 spent, 2 orders), 9 October, the day it restarted ($107.95, 3) and 13 October ($95.59, 3). Each was followed by a good day. Late September did go up and down every day for a week, but 10 to 12 October were three good days running. Four of the five TikTok members call the swings mostly noise; Fernando Campos calls the dip and bounce partly real.
Over a week it evens out: $2.88 in sales per $1 for 20 to 26 September and $3.38 for 9 to 15 October (with Thursday still partial), against $2.79 to break even (TikTok's count of all orders, not only new customers). So judge TikTok on 3 or 7 days, never one; never cut after one bad day; don't pause the campaign again (Alex Elsea: the restart day was weak); and keep feeding it new BROQ videos (items 2 and 3). The automatic increase is question 6.
What: This week, 3 or 4 new versions of Holy Grail, each with a new opening line and a new opening picture (another spot, or the study on screen), plus shorter cuts of it. From next week, two new ideas a week, each for a different kind of buyer (found in customer reviews), with 2 or 3 openings each.
Why: Meta barely spent on the same video with other opening lines, so a new version needs different first seconds, not just new words. Aim: a second ad taking real spend within 7 days.
What: Nick sends BROQ to 30 TikTok creators who already sell supplements or deals (like CrayCool Style and RD Dealz), with a one-page brief on the three angles that sell: living longer, a top-supplements list, a deal. Their commission is higher on sales from their own posts than on sales from ads we run on their posts. Ask the best ones for the right to run their videos on Meta too. Check TikTok's rules for supplement creators first.
Why: Yet they make only 16.1% of our TikTok sales today, so there's a lot of room to grow. First posts in 1 to 3 weeks, in time for Black Friday on 27 November.
What: Copy what already sells there (a deal, a top-supplements list, living longer), plus every Meta video and its cuts. You film in one or two batches, and Claude cuts each take into several openings. Keep TikTok's effort on BROQ, which is 90.8% of GMV Max sales.
Why: Our best TikTok seller is still last year's Black Friday post (18.6% of sales).
What: Nick checks in Meta's Events Manager that Meta's purchases for 14 and 15 October match Shopify's. And the nightly report shows, beside the ad-tagged number, all new-customer sales (tagged or not) per $1 of all ad spend. The rule itself stays as it is unless you say otherwise.
Why: 8 of 12 new BROQ customers since 8 October had no tag, 8 new customers on Wednesday had no record of which page they arrived on, and by 5:31pm Thursday the store had 25 orders, none with an ad tag.
What: On the ad pages and in new ads, put the bigger orders first: all three products, 2 bottles of SPMD-99, 3 pouches of BROQ. Run the new blood-test ad, built Thursday night, as its own offer. On TikTok, a 2-pouch BROQ bundle in place of seller discounts.
Why: Each $1 of ads has to bring back less (SPMD-99: 1.55 for 2 bottles, against 1.71 for one; BROQ: 1.61 for 3 pouches, against 1.72 for one; all three, one-time: 1.59).
What do the results so far say? Meta turned when your videos went in: 0.15, 0.15 and 0.17 of break-even while image ads carried it, then 0.75 and 0.96 once your videos ran. The latest window, 13 to 15 October with Thursday's full day, reads 0.71. Most of it rests on one video, Holy Grail ($434.44 spent, 9 orders). On TikTok, ads alone made $2.10 per $1 over the last 3 days against $2.79 needed (0.75x), not counting the lift on Amazon and the site, which you put at about 1.0x. Creators make only 16.1% of our TikTok sales.
Should we change our approach? Yes, all 13 say so, but in where the effort goes, not in the channels. Keep Meta and TikTok, your founder videos, the lab proof and the matched pages. Move the effort from budget rules and new opening lines on the same video to new video ideas, creators on TikTok, a scoreboard that sees untagged sales, and bigger first orders.
What most raises our chances on Meta? More winning videos. One video carries the account, and 5 of the 20 live ads hold about 80% of the spend. Build on Holy Grail now, then two new ideas a week, each for a different buyer.
What most raises our chances on TikTok? Creators and volume, on BROQ. Send product to creators who already sell, and post far more new BROQ videos in the shapes that already sell, so GMV Max has more to push. The TikTok members expect this to take weeks: first creator posts in 1 to 3 weeks, and Alex Elsea doesn't expect samples to break even before about 30 to 45 days.
More on TikTok's good day, bad day Two of Tuesday's 3 orders were subscription shipments, so new buyers that day came to only $0.33 per $1. The automatic increase (up to half again, once a day, $300 at most) was switched on Wednesday, though the records don't show when it kicked in. Thursday (to 10:07pm: $186.21, 9 orders, $546.21) isn't a full day yet. Two of those three low-spend days were Tuesdays (22 September and 13 October); Alex Elsea would check Tuesday 20 October before calling it a weekday dip. Days at or above $2.79 per $1: 8 of the 14.
Meta (8):
TikTok (5):
Every member said their changes would raise our chances.
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